04 March 2011

S&P500 : Conflict

  • Technically, bullish trend intact. Monthly up. Weekly 2 spike bottoms at 1295 and 1303 suggests uptrend continuation after testing downside.
  • Yet if I am right about interest rates going higher, then the obvious casualties are positions like long Gold+Equities. Already we have seen gold wobbling after Trichet comments last night. Equities were higher due to positive economic news (initial jobless claims dropped to +368k). At some point, expect rates impact to overwhelm better economic news, especially with inflation pressures building in the background.
  • Position : Long ES vs short Simsci. Psyching myself up to go square ES near recent highs at 1344 (now 1331). Then look for daily reversal to turn short.
  • Trade : Just squared half of long ESM1 at 1326 now. Let the Simsci leg hang naked. Cliff diving akan datang.

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