05 March 2011

Benchmarks : Weekly Update

  • P&L in trending mode, in the right direction.
  • NFP (+192k, 8.9%) did not provide the catalyst for higher rates as I had hoped for. Both equities and rates lower = representative of disappointed market expectations for stronger numbers. Trending better though.
  • USDX : Closed week at 76.41. Interesting to see what happens when we reach objective at 75.63. My guess is we will go thru easily (ie am seeing EUR/USD much higher than 1.4000).
  • US10YY : Nice 5-wave up. Expecting range trading 10-15 bp either side of 3.57%.
  • S&P500 : Uptrend intact but with greater accompanying volatility.
  • Gold : 1428 close = historical closing high.


Kris said...


Are you expecting a interest rate hike soon in the US? Since you are expecting the treasure yield to increase for your long position.

Taichiseal said...

Hi Kris - No I am not expecting a Fed hike anytime soon. I am long interest rates (short USTs and long calendar spreads) precisely because I think the Fed will leave it too late and the market will do the tightening for them by forcing the yield curve to steepen.