- As bad a week as it can get. Risk On Core (mostly long Commodities = short USD) suffered from fears of higher interest rates (China, Brazil) choking growth. Hedge (long USD / short EUR) failed dismally as the EUR decoupled from everything else and rallied strongly. Unfortunately I was foolishly on the wrong side. What an irony. Markets simply bypassed the "hedge higher inflation with long commodities" part of the equation and went straight to "higher inflation = higher rates = lower growth = lower commodities". I was hedging USD volatility, resulting in a large short EUR/long Commodities cross. Down large on year now.
- USDX : Broken down.
- US10YY : Did not get the triangle breakout at EOW. Still, think it will happen eventually and have established a small short TY.
- S&P500 : First black candle in weeks. But uptrend looks intact.
- Gold : Technically vulnerable.
- Why am I still holding on to some of the old positions, albeit in reduced sizes? Because I think the old logic (fear higher inflation? buy commodities) will come back and rule.
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