18 November 2010

UST-Bund Spread : Pullback to SHS NL

  • The SHS top has never gone away. Still valid even now.
  • Recent lowest weekly close was at +9 (intra-day touched +5). Since the QE2 unwind started, it has pulled back all the way towards the SHS NL (this week at +32).
  • Just re-sold at +25. [-FGBLZ0 @ 127.96 (2.65%) and +TYZ0 @ 124-19 (2.90%)].
  • Hedge ratio is 1.77 ie multiples of 4 bunds to 7 TY.
  • Downside objective remains at -43.

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