23 November 2010

US10YY : Yields Topped Out?

  • Quietly sitting on core positions for the past 2 weeks. P&L swings have been large (but fortunately not enough to alter overall result for year, given the small size of risks being run).
  • Risk On : Long AUD & CAD.
  • Risk Off : Long Gold & UST (& Short Bunds/Long USTs)
  • Awaiting technical development to make next decision with regards to open positions. Many charts at possible cross-roads. Keeping an open mind that some previously profitable trends may be ending. BUT, until we get confirmation on charts, will retain previous bias.
  • US10YY is good example of the wisdom of waiting for confirmation. Chart now looks like yields are coming back down after spike up on QE2 profit taking + some better US data.
  • Am long TYZ0 at 2.63%, 2.75% and 2.96%., average at 2.78% so around breakeven now after sitting through quite a lot of pain.
  • Right now, I think if we can ever back to low 2.40s, I would scramble and run first. 
  • Also contemplating selling Bunds (against open TY) to add to the Bunds/UST spread. Not just yet.

3 comments:

ahlim said...

aud daily chart looking like s-h-s top after this last move down ...
even XAU appears to be starting to form a right shoulder ...
any thoughts please?
thanks

ahlim said...

just saw that you are done for the year ..
no worries then ...

ryan said...

Well Done!!!