- Of all the trades out there right now, none more difficult to put on than shorting USD/JPY. Fundamentally does not make a lot of sense, entry level is not comfortable, going against BOJ, etc.
- But technically is correct. Good enough for me. Necessary and sufficiency conditions met in my book.
- No nonsense line chart here shows monthly close <84.25 = already broken. No need to wait for 79.70 to get excited. A 40 year low closing coming up this month end, unless something drastic happens between now and then. History in the making.
- Combined EUR/USD and USD/JPY shorts earlier to make EUR/JPY short, which I am perfectly comfortable with. Now mulling outright USD/JPY short.
4 comments:
You are considering of closing your EUR/USD hedge and just outright shorting the USD/JPY? Well thats probably better than having a eur/usd and usd/jpy at the same time considering the increased dollar exposure.
Shorting the EUR/JPY is probably a better idea once you close your gold and EUR/USD position, so you don't have a conflicting thesis.
Keep the EUR/JPY and EUR/USD shorts as hedges for the rest of the book.
I want to start a new trade, outright short USD/JPY. Looking for entry points.
-81.78
Hey TS,
The 30yr line chart of UJ is very interesting. On this very macro-macro scale, UJ looks like it has been trying to base near 90 over the past 3-4 years. Typically we can expect a spike low (on the monthly) below the all time lows and then it should take off eventually breaking the topside of this basing formation. That's not to say it will not see 75 or even lower first.
Pandu
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