09 October 2010

US10YY : Applying Lessons of Corn

  • Squared all outright long TY around 2.45% during the past week.
  • Logic as per corn post earlier. Long TY from 3.00%, objective 2.20%. At 2.45%, reduce risk substantially on changing risk reward considerations.
  • Exposure now only in spread against Bunds. Much less volatile but if the 2 legs tear, could be more nasty.
  • Strictly speaking, last week close at 2.40% = <2.42% previous low = buy TY signal. May yet consider new trade new risk parameters (as per recent AUD) next week. Because 2.20% is but just the DT objective, a useful reference point. This could well go on to test the all time low at 2.04%

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