16 October 2010

Benchmarks : Weekly Update

  • Friday price action = signs of QE2 fatigue (Bernanke says "case for further action" but Risk trades do not perform).
  • Short EUR hedge working well. P&L high water mark protected.
  • USDX : Still downtrend.
  • US10YY : Fed buying. Follow the big buyer above 2.60%.
  • S&P500 : SHS bottom breakout working as it should.
  • Gold : Up.
  • Warning : Long legged dojis (long upper and lower tails, small body crowding the middle) evident in a few weekly charts eg EUR/USD, AUD/USD, cable, USDX. Potential to turn into reversals but need to see price action follow through next week for confirmation. Stay hedged and unhedge into open QE2 only very very slowly. Mentally prepared to cut and turn if evening star forms.

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