29 September 2010

UST-Bund Spread : Weekly SHS Top

  • Currently trading around +22.
  • Monthly : discussed briefly yesterday.
  • Weekly : broken a SHS Top neckline at +27. July low at +23. A close below this should see a downward acceleration of the spread. Will add onto yesterday's initial short if it looks like we are going to close the week with confirmation. Have ample ammunition to take on additional risk here, having reduced the outright mega long TY this evening at 2.475%.
  • On the downside, I would think +11, +4 and par are significant chart points.
  • Slight concern : duration of RS a bit too short relative to LS so seems incomplete.

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