08 September 2010

EUR/GBP : Weekly Triangle Support 0.8159

  • [Recall Aug10's wait in vain for a month end closing below 0.8184]
  • Interesting technical development since then : This week's high thus far = 0.8390. IF this same high remains in place (ie no more new high set above here by this Friday), then we would have a nice 4th point to define a weekly triangle. The lower edge of this triangle is now at 0.8159.
  • Thus, we can refine our next pyramid entry criteria to sell on a close below 0.8159 this week. (Now at 0.8259).
  • The current down leg from 0.8390 is driven by the 2nd chart here (Ireland-Germany bond spread). Widened out to a record +380, even above the highs set during the worst of the earlier Greece debt crisis. WSJ article yesterday discussing weakness in European banking sector (stress tests were a joke, understating many of the lenders' sovereign exposure. Barclays one of the culprits) the reason.

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