US Initial Jobless Claims : Could be Key

• Last week's number @ 500k = technical breakout of recent range of 420k-490k + reversal of downtrend that has been in place since Mar09.
• Equity bears (= bond bulls) need just a wee bit of luck with tonight's release to bury the opposition.
• [After the recent down move in US10YY from >3.00% to 2.52% now (objective at 2.20%), I have shifted to less bond bull + more equity bear (within an overall Risk Off stance) due to risk reward considerations]
• Attached charts of Claims and NFP. Both clearly do not bode well for US growth outlook and supportive of Risk Off. Another claims >=500k tonight will lead markets to expect a poor NFP next week. Perhaps we might even get a chance to clean up without having to run a big risk position through the NFP release. Sometimes a bit of luck can make all the difference.