- Generally, lower rates = higher equities.
- Unless ... common factor driving both = recession. In which case, BOTH rates and equities lower. Charts here pointing lower for S&P, Shanghai composite, Copper and US10YY.
- Imagine the damage a weak NFP tomorrow night can do to these charts. Risk asymmetric. Good number = trade up to resistance to add onto shorts. Bad number = no bottom in sight. Time to go for the jugular?
- My favored position under current circumstances is to max out on long TY. Large positive carry while recession plays itself out.
- [Recession is not my call. It's what the charts are telling us about market's expectations].
01 July 2010
Double Dip Recession
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China Stats Bureau says China's Export Outlook is Grim.
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