01 July 2010

Double Dip Recession

  • Generally, lower rates = higher equities.
  • Unless ... common factor driving both = recession. In which case, BOTH rates and equities lower. Charts here pointing lower for S&P, Shanghai composite, Copper and US10YY. 
  • Imagine the damage a weak NFP tomorrow night can do to these charts. Risk asymmetric. Good number = trade up to resistance to add onto shorts. Bad number = no bottom in sight. Time to go for the jugular?
  • My favored position under current circumstances is to max out on long TY. Large positive carry while recession plays itself out.
  • [Recession is not my call. It's what the charts are telling us about market's expectations].

1 comment:

Taichiseal said...

China Stats Bureau says China's Export Outlook is Grim.