03 June 2010

Copper : Large Downside Potential

  • Observation : Copper is struggling of late, even on occasions when risk appetite is strong. This suggests that Risk Off positioning should be concentrated on shorting Copper. (eg contrast with diverging performance of AUD the past 2 days).
  • Long term chart of Copper presented here for some perspective. If this turns into a bear market, price has a lot of room to fall from current still lofty levels (now 3.00).
  • Highly correlated to China. Shanghai composite below 2640 is not good.
  • Already built up a fairly large short position. Next action = sell stop-in below 2.90 which is where we get a continued series of lower highs and lower lows on the weekly and daily charts.