- Reckon I have given the SHS bottom (see monthly chart) sufficient leeway to prove itself and failed. Time to give up on it.
- Re-drawn NL now at 4.00%. So setting a more stringent barrier for a revisit of the SHS scenario. Until then, stay out. No uptrend = range trading = market to avoid.
- RBS Research makes a case for "A Positive Supply Shock Looms" for USTs today. Makes sense I guess, given improvement in the economy, revenue from selling of distress assets acquired during crisis (eg Citi), etc. If so, bond swap spread unlikely to remain negative for too long also.
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