30 April 2010

EU Debt Crisis : Spike Extremes

  • Greece aid package agreement = temporary cooling of debt crisis (still rest of PIGS for markets to pick on).
  • Easing of panic evident from 10 year bond yield charts of Germany and Greece.
  • EU10YY : Spike bottom at 2.905%. Greece bailout = more funding pressures for core Europe. Sell Bunds. Watch 3.09% (now at 3.00%) - if taken out, bunds could go a lot lower.
  • GR10YY : Spike top at 13.14% (now 9.33%).
  • Prefer to pair Selling Bunds with shorting EUR/USD. Good news for Greece = lower bunds and relief rally (reckon already half done) for EUR/USD. Any hiccup = EUR/USD takes a hit but Bunds will not necessarily rally a lot given the anticapated funding demands/credit pressures (barring an ejection of Greece from the EU).

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