- Took advantage of Greece+Portugal ratings downgrade news last night to square off most of my naked short EUR/USD risk in the resultant sell-off. (How could that news be a surprise to anyone?).
- Also unlegged the short EUR/CAD position to leave me a large naked short USD/CAD only.
- As far as EUR exposure go, am left only with -EUR/+XAU now, which is making new historical highs. Strong uptrend as can be seen in the accompanying chart.
- So Core Book now has basically 1. -USD/+CAD .. 2. -EUR/+XAU .. 3. +EDM0/-EDZ0. The other positions (-Bunds, +USD/-JPY) are almost immaterial in the bigger scheme of things.
- Bets are therefore on : 1. continued economic recovery (US good = Canada even better); 2. EU structural problems = switch out of EUR to benefit Gold. 3 Hedge : Long ED Spread insurance against possible surprise change in Fed stance + expect continued improvement in NFP.
- Only want to increase short EUR bets against Gold and not on outright basis as I think chances of a snapback are increasingly less and less negligible.
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