18 March 2010

GBP/USD : Lather, Rinse, Repeat?

  • Rally in GBP/USD from recent low of 1.4780 2 weeks ago a concern for bears. Now at 1.5301.
  • However, whilst painful in terms of open profits given back, the magnitude of the rally has not changed the overall bearish picture too much.
  • This current retracement (pink) looks very similar to what happened in Jan10 (red). Expect down leg to follow when this is over.
  • Reminder that successful Trend Following is 80% money management and 20% timing/directional call. Not over-committing and avoiding being squeezed out while you still believe in the trade - that's what it's all about.
  • [Same outlook for EUR/USD].

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