02 March 2010

EUR/USD : Another Weekly Bear Flag

  • Took advantage of last night's volatility to greatly reduce short EUR/USD risk by 50% at 1.3511.
  • Monthly : Down.
  • Weekly : 2nd bear flag of this down move forming. Matter of time before we plunge further, like a cascading waterfall.
  • Daily : Tempting to say this is trying to form a base (especially given all the talk of how short the market is already). Think that would be a hugely mistaken assumption. Go up the time frames to see that this sell-off is far from over yet.
  • Started scale up selling this morning. 1.3560 my first re-entry. 
  • Sell stop-in below 1.3442 as well (is a MUST).
  • Can't help but think that next bear leg will coincide with bund yields taking out 3.09% convincingly ie triggered by a EU related disaster, spreads blow-out. Watching very closely.
  • Addendum 5:20 pm 02Mar10 : Sell stop-in triggered @ 1.3438.

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