19 February 2010

USDX : Fed DR Hike = Game Changer ?

  • Fed DR move took market by surprise, as indicated by the fresh upleg in the USDX chart.
  • Accompanying Fed statement says "The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy." Not sure if market believes them entirely and happily proceed as if nothing has changed. Going forward, I think market will constantly be on the lookout for the first Fed Funds hike or increased rates on reserves or whatever variation that = a non-superficial tightening of monetary policy.
  • Read also Dennis Gartman's comments re : EUR/USD, which make a lot of sense to me.
  • Nearby chart points for USDX = 1. Monthly 50% Fibonacci at 81.90 and 2. Weekly previous support at 82.63. Currently at 81.17.

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