This has sold off a long way already so fresh short established today in tiny size only. Likelihood of a sharp bounce is not to be dismissed lightly.- Also, trading softs from the short side is often suicidal (in hindsight) when things go wrong. Limited downside, unlimited upside on price.
- Monthly : Looks like big bear flag, breaking downside support.
- Weekly : Same. SHS top forming also.
- Position is tiny enough for me to run this without a stop. Waiting to see how technicals develop before making decision to step up or abort.
- This is probably a lot less correlated to current strong USD/risk aversion theme than most other trades out there.
- Addendum 01Feb09 9:05 pm : Sell stop-in below 878.75 (Oct09 low) might be good idea.
- Addendum 02Feb10 11:00 am : Filled limit order to sell at 918 last night. Average in short at 915.
01 February 2010
Soybean : Fresh Short @ 912
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