- Core Book - positioned for higher USD, weaker commodities, lower stocks ie Risk Aversion theme.
- Exp [-20K, 10.1%]
- Weak NFP = Yields lower, USD lower, Stocks ? I think on balance, stocks lower as well on growth disappointment, negative technicals and fading momentum. Any initial rally (on extended low rates) post weak NFP for selling into, although not necessarily have to be tonight.
- Strong NFP = Yields higher, USD higher, Stocks will fear higher rates more than rally on better growth expectations.
- So - either way - I am looking to get shorter Equities post NFP.
- Danger point : S&P500 cash above 1105. Re-assess the above if so.
- Addendum 9:30 pm : Act [-20k, 9.7%]
05 February 2010
My Thoughts pre-NFP
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