17 February 2010

Not All Trendlines Are Created Equal

  • 4 charts to illustrate why I generally do not completely trust trendline breaks as standalone trade signals. Will still take them but in small trade sizes only until proven.
  • EUR/USD : Once broken, this never looked back and turned out to be immensely profitable. This kind of trade performance from a single TL break signal is the exception rather than the rule.
  • GBP/USD : Nightmare series of TL breaks although overall probably profitable if one was looking for small points each time (pyramiding would have killed me). Chart has since evolved into nice rounding multiple tops which in my experience is a much more reliable trade pattern. EUR/JPY is same. Perfect for fuzzy exits given much overhead resistance even if wrong.
  • Copper : Sharp UpTL break and pulled back all the way to the original TL, which I reckon is the perfect trade location for a short.
  • S&P500 : Million dollar question - is this going to do a EUR/USD or a Cable/EURJPY? For now my money is on a bear flag just like EUR/USD around 1.44 ie still want to sell S&P.

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