18 February 2010

AUD/JPY : Pullback to UpTL for Selling

  • This is actually better than the Copper trade. (Copper is single TL break sell signal).
  • Monthly : Likely a top has been made although no concrete sell signal yet.
  • Weekly : Unlike Copper, this has made a double top already so is more reliable as a trade signal. Current rally back to the UpTL is a good opportunity to establish fresh short.
  • Undecided whether to put anything on here. Already positioned for lower AUD/JPY in other forms.
  • Last 81.36. Daily showing weakness already. Perhaps if we see this close to 82.00 I will put some on. If not, so be it. My constant weakness is piling on too much risk when the going is good. Got to restrain myself.
  • If I had seen this yesterday, I would have done this instead of the copper trade.
  • Addendum 10:04 pm : Additional chart showing what a good risk proxy AUD/JPY is in recent months and indeed, since 2002. Even better than EUR/JPY whose correlation broke down throughout much of 2H09.
  • Addendum 12:30 am 19Feb10 : Sold AUD/JPY @ 82.23 [-AUD/+USD @ 0.8993; -USD/+JPY @ 91.44]

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