06 December 2009

USDX : Trend Change?

  • Another attempt at bottom calling. Been a costly and painful exercise but we have to remain true to our methodology here. Will NOT be selective in deciding which trade signals to take or reject (Rule#5); only variable allowed is SIZE of risk.
  • Weekly : DownTL broken once again, on better than expected NFP. TL support now at 75.06 next week.
  • Daily : Friday's super-sized candle indicates that something major has taken place. Usually it is a combination of an event shock (eg sudden change in interpretation of fundamentals) and one sided positioning that gives rise to such price action.
  • Whilst TL break NOT necessarily = immediate new trend (could be sideways for a long period of time while base building takes place), preferred strategy is now to buy USD on dips. Picking the best counter-currencies makes for an interesting exercise next.
  • Currently I only have the trade (+USD) against -GBP. Will explain choice in next post.

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