23 December 2009

GBP/USD : Re-evaluation

  • Game plan all this time based on 1.5700 objective. Short from above 1.66 on day of NFP (04Dec).
  • Now at 1.5974. A closer look at the line chart has led to a re-think of strategy.
  • Line chart : A weekly close below 1.5854 will trigger a sell based on a double top formation. Placing the top at 1.6719, this has a downside objective of 1.4989 (= near to where I first went long cable largely contributing to a very profitable 2Q09).
  • Candlesticks : Support at 1.5705 which is also the target computed via various other measures. Therefore, expect a very firm last stand by bulls here.
  • Trades : Need to run concurrent multiple strategies based on the 2 considerations above. (1) New short on close below 1.5854 with tighter stop than current core short. (2) Take profit near 1.5705 on core short. (3) Below 1.5705 weekly close = Bet the house.
  • [Toiling whilst others are celebrating the holiday season. Such is T4L when not doing well]

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