19 December 2009

Benchmarks : Weekly Update

  • Whether current USD rally is just a temporary bear squeeze or start of a more enduring move remains to be seen. But as a technical trend trader, one has to assume it has more legs ... until it doesn't. (For eg. look at EUR/USD daily price action. Puke, flag, flag. Puke, flag, flag. Assume repeat until proven wrong).
  • USDX : Closed at 77.77 = Above 77.69 previous spike low + 3rd consecutive white candle above DownTL = Bullish.
  • US10YY : Not much to say here. Lacked conviction in 3.30%-3.60% call so did not buy when we traded above 3.60% earlier in the week. Besides, I am not a range trader. Chart says nothing to me still.
  • S&P500 : 5th week of "zzz" price action. Yawn. Still uptrend but my suspicion is that all this will turn out to be a big rounding top eventually.
  • Gold : Managed to find some support below 1100 but unless it is again my hated V-bottom, this sell-off is not over by a long shot. 3 candle evening star indicates weekly uptrend has reversed. Expect same kind of price action as EUR described above ie (puke flag flag)*X.
  • Good news : Had largest 1 day gain of my T4L life on Thurs 17Dec09. Locked in half last night.
  • Bad news : This just brings me to small down for the year (from large down). For T4L, being down at all (however small) = drawing down on savings for living expenses. Not good.
  • EUR/USD closed NY the week at 1.4333, hovering around my 1.4337 chart-point so I did not dive in deeper. Will get better chances next week I'm sure.

2 comments:

Don C said...

Congrats on your record day.

This year may be one of those years where total (cap appreciation+yield) return from the 'passive' portfolios is more meaningful than returns (or losses) from the trading portfolios.
The 'passive' portfolio also much less passive this year (ironically and anxiously)...

Taichiseal said...

Thanks Don.