Benchmarks : Weekly Update

• Price action during the past week confirms a near term sentiment change towards a positive USD. Expect follow through next week given how one sided the market has been, but impact on equities not so clear. Better to keep things simple and express view via straight FX.
  
• USDX : DownTL broken with 2nd consecutive weekly white candlestick taking us to a 2 month closing high. Positive. Good time for smart money to engineer a bear squeeze?
  
• US10YY : Not sure how to call this. Perhaps 3.30% - 3.60% range trading (in which case, TY is nearer a buy than sell). 2s/10s new high at +274, trending up but very steep = high volatility.
  
• S&P500 : Incredibly, this has now been stuck around highs of current move (1100) for 5 weeks already without generating any further upside momentum. Could be pause that refreshes, or sign that the rally has run out of steam. Reserve judgment. Started with small short Nikkei and Simsci as "lottery" trades.
  
• Gold : Evening star confirmed = Trend change (on weekly timeframe). The fast and furious rally from 1050 to 1226 has left vacuums at various price levels and would not be surprised to see it come back all the way to 1050 or lower for base building.
• Core Book is long USD 8x vs short Equities 1x.