16 December 2009

AUD/USD : When it Rains ...

  • Soft GDP numbers today (3Q09+0.2%) leading AUD lower and re-think of pace and size of RBA rate hikes.
  • Daily : Triangle evident. Although triangles are continuation patterns, I find that breakouts on the reverse side do work too. Now at 0.9004, we have bounced once off the triangle support line at 0.8971 today. If it works, the measured downside objective is appx 5 big figures ie around 0.8470.
  • Weekly : UpTL broken for 3 weeks already and not reclaimed thus far. Sometimes TL breaks see pull backs eg CAD; sometimes not eg EUR - blink and the best opportunity is gone.
  • Monthly : Still up but imagine damage that will be done to this chart if the daily triangle objective is achieved.
  • Yet another nail pouring down on the USD bears' coffin.
  • Already have plenty of long USD exposure so nothing doing here. But think that a daily close below 0.8971 is a good place to start if not on board yet.

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