27 November 2009

EUR/JPY : Out of Congestion Zone = Down

  • This pair has been trading within a congested band for the longest time .. since the equity bottom in Mar09.
  • Finally looks like it has broken out on the downside.
  • As per ING Research, probably no longer as good a Risk Appetite proxy as it was before given the changed correlation of JPY since US ZIRP.
  • Thus, technically regarded as a pure standalone sell here without necessarily expecting equities to sell-off too ie don't be itching to short equities because of this chart.
  • Other JPY crosses included here for comparison.
  • Same story throughout as might be expected given over-riding USD/JPY common factor.

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