"Anchoring" = act of latching onto a given piece of information and using that as a point of reference for making decisions.- Since Aug09, I have been bought over and anchored by Rosenberg, and have been looking in vain for an end to the rally in Risk Assets (costly!). This post represents yet another such (foolish?) attempt.
- Survival through wave after wave of bad trading calls has been achieved only by sticking to my rules "Small Positions" and "Don't Add to Losers".
- When Rosenberg is finally proven right, I want to get paid ... BIG TIME. In the meantime, I need to stay in the game.
- 1 proxy for the Risk Assets trade is USD/fx. Risk On = USD down. Risk Off = USD up. [Recent correlation between USD index and S&P500 = -0.9].
- Weekly line charts (free of intra-week noise) for various USD/fx pairs here showing Rosenberg's time to shine might be near. All pointing to a period of USD strength just ahead.
- GBP/USD : Triple top around 1.6719.
- AUD/USD : UpTL broken last week.
- USD/CAD : DownTL broken 3 weeks ago. [>1.0852 = BUY!]
- EUR/USD : UpTL broken last week.
- Apart from Nikkei, other major equity indices do not concur with the above .. yet.
22 November 2009
Anchoring Rosenberg (Again!)
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2 comments:
Things are a bit confusing as the eur-yen cross is relatively at the same level when the SnP was at 850 in March. That is if the cross is still a proxy regarding the global health of the capital markets. A big divergence going on here.
BH
Yes. Agree. Damn confusing. Really need Equities to confirm a turn before feeling confident about this. Not sure about EUR/JPY here.
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