Another eg of where daily chart led one astray. UpTL break at 1015 on 01Sep09 (the day after Shanghai lost 6.7%) got bears excited. Wrong!- Monthly and weekly charts never did fall for it.
- One false move like this and one's mind is well and truly screwed. The whole month has been spent making up for lost opportunites. Very costly in terms of large moves missed eg weaker USD/FX. (Fortunate in that my choice of Risk Off instruments did not hurt too much).
- Also good eg of the folly of (1) calling tops and bottoms (2) mixing fundamentals (eg subscribing to Rosenberg) with technicals in trading.
- Best stick just to technicals and follow the trend rather than trying to anticipate turns on basis of "good story-telling". Better be late and sure than early and sorry.
17 September 2009
S&P500 : Folly of Trying to Pick a Top
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