Risk Aversion Indicators

Do not want to get too carried away and over-commit to RISK OFF yet. But the signs of a (risk) top are slowly showing up on various weekly charts. Here are some UpTLs being broken or about to be :=

• EUR/JPY : Now 131.97. UpTL broken at 133.08.
• US10YY : Now 3.34%. UpTL broken at 3.40%.
• Nikkei : Now 10202. UpTL just below at 10097.
• Crude Oil : Now 69.00. UpTL below at 65.85.

What we are missing now is .. downside momentum. (Note a default TL break by a sideways move with the passing of time is no good). A few large black candles should confirm a break the bulls' psychology. Until then, still cautious here. Waiting for a trigger and gritting my teeth meanwhile.

Addendum 15Sep09 9:34 pm : Had hoped that the US Retail Sales data might be a possible trigger event but it is not to be. The waiting continues.