05 August 2009

Bunds/UST 10 yr Spread : +32

  • Last +32, widest +ve spread since Aug07
  • Broke +29 chart point yesterday on strong housing data, pre-empting expected upside break on improving NFP
  • Still need weekly close above +29 to confirm fresh buy signal. NFP probably deciding factor. Refunding next week should strengthen up move.
  • Longer term implications for equities and USD/fx. Very important to watch this for possible turning points (much higher yields have potential to reverse current moves)
  • Awaiting price action after NFP release (weekly close too) for desirability of adding on to trade
  • Duration neutral ratio is 1 TYU9 vs 0.52 RXU9 (Bloomberg PDH2 - thanks Andrew!)

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