25 January 2013

EUR/USD : Finally .. Action !

  • Finally .. some sign of life. Breaking out of the congestion zone on the daily chart so it's time to load up with a stop close back within.
  • Trade : Earlier long position established at an average of 1.3322. Just increased position at 1.3397 on this breakout. Fully loaded here now. Average cost 1.3340.
  • Long term : Weekly inverse SHS targeting 1.4269. Do not take profit! Stay long.
  • PS : The daily triangle upside objective is at 1.3544.


Taichiseal said...

From ING Research :=

The crisis is over. At least in Germany. Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, increased in January for the third month in a row and stands now at 104.2; its highest level since June last year. Both, the current assessment and the expectation component improved. Particularly the improvement of expectations is remarkable. The combined improvement in December and January was the strongest 2-months improvement since the summer of 2009.

The contraction in the fourth quarter of 2012 seems to be short-lived. With biggest fears of a Eurozone break-up fading away and the improved outlook for the US and China, prospects for the German economy are also clearing off. Inventory build-up seems to have come to an end and order books have started to thicken again. In fact, it looks as if the gradual decoupling from the rest of the Eurozone is continuing. While business confidence has dropped in other core Eurozone countries like France and Belgium, German businesses are surfing on the wave of optimism. Is this the start of a core meltdown? German optimism could turn into reality as the main drivers behind the decoupling, or unique selling points of the economy, remain in place in 2013: export diversification, labour market strength and favourable financing conditions.

Taichiseal said...

From RBS Research :=

ECB LTRO: €137.2 bn from 278 banks = rate hike

Eurosystem banks paid back €137.2bn at the first LTRO payback window. The number of banks giving back cash was 278. The market consensus for today from a Bloomberg survey put the consensus at €84bn (average €78bn, range €10-200bn). Today’s number is much higher than we had expected.

Where do we go from here? The weekly payback option makes for a structurally steeper term structure as the endogenous liquidity withdrawal makes for automatic rate hikes. That is, there is a convexity effect from risk-on periphery markets and healing bank funding markets which introduces upside risks for rates.

Taichiseal said...

Taken 20% profit @ -1.3544