05 November 2012

EUR/USD : More Weakness Ahead

  • Daily : Uneven double top. Friday's close at 1.2829 confirms the break below the neckline pitched (somewhat arbitrarily but logical) at recent lowest close on 01Oct12 at 1.2853. Measured downside objective is 270 pips, at around 1.2580. Looking back, there is a cluster of candles formed around here late Aug, so this makes some sense.
  • Weekly : If the above turns out to be true, then we would have the possible start of a new leg of lower highs and lower lows ie big picture downtrend continuation.
  • Monthly : Still a mess.


Anonymous said...

You called the monthly chart untradable? stop giving your self excuse. This is the new normal!. If the chart cannot change, the trader's system or methodology must!This is so or else risk being dropped out of the T4L journey altogether! Pandu in his blog zenfxtrader just make 130K for the month of Oct. hypothetical or now, lets not dwell on the numbers other than that he just came out on top, this is more important.

Taichiseal said...

Unfortunately, your comments reveal a severe lack of understanding of the trading methodology behind this blog. Let me explain :=

1. Explicitly stated everywhere on blog - TREND trading. Implicit - look for classical trend reversal patterns for early entry and AVOID non-trending markets.

2. Should be painfully obvious that each annotation refers to the particular chart timeframe. Labeling the monthly chart "Untradable" does not mean there is no trade on the weekly chart. Of course optimal is when all 3 timeframes give the same message.

So, from your very critical eye, just purely from the MONTHLY EUR/USD chart, what is the TREND or TREND REVERSAL trade? Tell me. All I see is a series of huge zig-zags and overlaps.

Lastly, if you wish to go round making disparaging remarks about other people's trading, perhaps you should be man enough not to hide behind the moniker of "Anonymous".

Anonymous said...

Sorry if I sounds disparaging, but the days where EURUSD goes up in an almost straight line from 2002 to early 2008 are over. Those systems adapted to that period cannot be used now. The new normal is oscillating PA, even on a weekly chart. On the other extreme, now I know of system that trades 10s chart on dukascopy, not that I am advocating it, but some time frames in between. There are trends in hourly charts but that means more screen times. But times are different isn't it? PA just got a lot more volatile, demanding more screen times in trading and getting in and out much more frequently. I will shutup from now on.

Anonymous said...

Have you tried Metatrader 4 platform for charting?