28 May 2010

AUD/USD : Starting to Short Now

  • AUD/USD has formed a double top at 0.9405, neckline at 0.8576 (see both monthly and weekly charts). The technical objective for this is 0.7747. The recent sharp sell-off has taken this to a low of 0.8065, well short of objective.
  • Accordingly, am viewing this current rally as a temporary pull-back only and looking for it to turn down again. Started selling this morning at 0.8526. Plan to scale into this (and others) slowly as we get towards 0.8576.
  • Against a monster core USD/CAD short, am going to run a combo of short AUD, Copper and S&P. Immediate task ahead is to work into optimal entry levels. 
  • Learnt my lesson from a disastrous book construction of running long Gold against log CAD in the recent German short sell ban + Spanish banks funding + Korean war panic. Will keep the gold position independant of this Risk On/Risk Off play.
  • AUD/CAD chart included here. Confirm its a sell rally chart.

2 comments:

FX Trader said...

EURUSD is a good sell but I am quite confused with AUDUSD. I do not know if AUDUSD is back to uptrend or this is a bear rally.

Taichiseal said...

-0.8493