10 year Bund yields @ 3.117% now = low of current move (presumably Bunds/PIIGS-spreads driven).- Monthly : Large triangle evident. Yield support at 3.09% which is also a significant previous low.
- Weekly : Already broken out of triangle on downside. However, I will wait to see 3.09% taken out before going long FGBLH0.
- Price action here consistent with more EU country deficits/debt burden woes ie expect more downside on EUR/fx as well.
- Unfortunately, my Reuters database for EU10YY doesn't go back further than 1998. From the database available, I see historical low EU10YY at 2.85%. If the triangle works, it's going to take EU10YY way below ie new historical lows in EU yields (which always excites trend traders like me). This could well turn out to be a biggie trade yet. Watch this space!
- Important to wait for 3.09% confirmed break before buying! Or else could risk buying Bunds at the absolute highs now.
Addendum : Managed to pull out a chart of 10 year German bund yields going back to 1990. Confirm 2.85% is the low since then. Thus, break of 2.85% = new 20 year low at a minimum (if not all time low). Exciting if it comes to pass.
08 February 2010
EU10YY : Get Ready to Buy Bunds
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