21 September 2009

GBP/USD vs ED Spreads : An Observation

  • Chart shows GBP/USD and ED_M0/Z0 spread across same timeframe
  • Both good Risk Appetite indicators.
  • Amazing how since equities made their bottom on 09Mar09, the 2 charts have an almost 1-1 structure, matching almost wave for wave in price action.
  • Both weekly UpTL broken.
  • Cable attempting to form SHS top now. ED Spread possibly also.
  • But some divergence in timing in short term. Cable is down (leading) and testing NL (1.6150) whilst ED spread is retracing (up) to form right shoulder now with NL at +73.5 (lagging).
  • 1 possible conclusion is that IF cable SHS top is confirmed and ED spread is still forming the right shoulder, 1 should go for the spread and sell it in large.
  • IF ED spread is a SHS top, objective is +53.5.
  • Cable SHS (if confirmed) downside objective 1.5154. (See here and here). Awaiting confirmation now.

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