EUR/JPY : Risk Proxy

• This is the 1 chart that can be used to represent >90% of the market for Risk at the current moment (eg look at Oil, Copper, S&P500, Cable, US10YY, etc etc - all have similar chart structure)
• Tide - up move from 112.05 has to be regarded as a retracement. Big picture is still down. Question is where and when to establish short. Most recent candles have big ranges and long tails = battle between bulls and bears still going on. Gaining confidence that 139.18 is key (described by Don C as the Mason Dixon Line). But it could be many candles/months before price action ages the chart sufficiently to give us a tradable pattern for the downside. We could spend a lot of time chopping sideways first (not up NOT =down)
  
• Wave - Range trading within 131.07 and 139.18. Given recent chop, am undecided if I should go with a downside break of 131.07. Better to try and sell high against 139.18 stop, if the market offers me a chance. (Last 133.77).
  
• Ripple - this is where I will look for clues for shorter term trades in line with the Wave. For now, I see nothing of interest here. In Elliot Wave terminology - a series of ABCs. Very choppy and going nowhere fast.
  
• Overall Strategy - becoming more convinced Tide UP nearing end but unsure of timing and no nice chart pattern formed yet. Wave also saying nearer to top of range thus short is preferred. So work into short term trading shorts when opportunities arise and take profits when possible. One of these days, the trading short will morph into a good trending short. This, then, is my plan for the coming weeks/months.