17 November 2014
16 October 2014
- Explosive price action last night. [Op 98-25 Hi 98-67 Lo 98-21.5 Cl 98-43 (reckon at least 5-sigma event)] explained by Ebola fears, low US inflation data + weak economic data.
- Had been trying for past few months to short EDZ6. Latest attempts -98-14 stopped +98-15.5 and -98-22 stopped +98-26. Expected 98-20.5 to be top of trading range but obviously dead wrong. With rates already so low, going long was never in my thoughts. Thus, huge stroke of luck not to have been caught short in last night's crazy price action. [Lesson : Always place stops with the system!].
- No clue what to do now. Perhaps major bear capitulation is done. Going to stay out for a while, maybe till next year.
18 September 2014
- Sacrificed much of last night's CL football to listen to Yellen's press conference. Bottom line : Timeline to rate hikes non-mechanical, data dependent. Which begs the question - why bother to leave the "considerable time" in? When markets were fragile, it made sense to provide comfort and reassurance but those days are since long over. After the usual initial knee jerk (eg EDZ6 97-91.5 high, TYZ4 124-20 high on seeing the "considerable time" left in the FOMC statement), rates markets collectively voted "hawkish" as indicated by the weak end of day closes.
- Weekly and daily charts now firmly in bearish mode (barring a strong reversal into the weekend). Might see some support at previous significant low at 97-73, but my expectation is that this will give way and lead to a test of 97-50 on the next NFP release (Exp. reversion to >+200k).
- Mighty glad not to have been shaken out of existing positions (-EDZ6, -TYZ4 and +USD/-CAD) last night. Purely due to strict discipline in NOT increasing positions earlier in the week. Must stick to that.
13 September 2014
- Weekly line charts of TYc1 and EDZ6. Clean view of price action stripped of intra-week noise.
- TY (or ZN) : Fresh triangle breakout on downside, should be good for 4.5 big figures (from break point of appx 124-08), therefore targetting 119-24. Early days, plenty to go for. Short trade can be made with relatively tight stop on top given the freshness of the break.
- ED (or GE) : Chart not as negative as TY. EDZ6 still trapped within range but current downleg should take us to 97-70. Probably need a change in current Fed stance (eg removal of "considerable period") to trigger the break, which I do expect.
- Position : 1. Large short EDZ6 at 97-98 average 2. Medium sized short at 124-18 and 124-15. Probably wrong way round in weighting. Any increase in risk should be made in TY, unless 97-70 breaks too.
10 September 2014
- ZNZ4 at 124-22, sitting right on a support line on the weekly chart, in front of FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17. Potential game changer in the works?
- Inability to hold onto rally given last Friday's << expected NFP (+142k only) is telling.
- Bear case is building, slowly but surely.
- Sticking with large core short EDZ6 for now. Patiently waiting for ZNZ4 breakdown before increasing exposure to short US Rates instruments. This is one (ZN) that I do not need to rush into (or rather, already have it).
09 September 2014
- Would appear to be resumption of upmove on all time frames. Retracement (down) over confirmed by the taking out of previous high on daily chart.
- Fresh long initiated at 1.0993. Increase if we close above 1.1100 tonight. Abandon if this turns out to be top of a trading range.
- Trade consistent with general buy USD environment.
- Heading towards 1.1277.
03 September 2014
- Just back in Singapore today, was unable to update blog while away. Much trading done the past 2 weeks.
- 1. Profitable trade shorting Copper (initiated -HGZ4 @ 323.30), square now (so won't bother to make a blog post for this).
- 2. Stopped out tiny TYZ4 position @ 126-18 in the mid-Aug bear squeeze.
- 3. Managed to ride out the storm with the short EDZ6 position though and added to it on the way down. Balance of outstanding short position has average cost of 98-00. Risk level on this is the largest I have had for quite a while soon.
- Expect current down leg to make a test of 97-81 support line, but I am much more bearish than that and think the time is very near for a big bond bear market to begin soon, if not now. [proximity of completion of tapering, +250k NFPs, UR nearing break below 6.0%].
- Dismal P&L performance however. YTD = breakeven after trading costs.
10 August 2014
- Came across this hauntingly beautiful song [iOS] in Kang Koo's Story, written by Roy Orbison and Jeff Lynne in 1988. Must go check out the rest of the Mystery Girl album.
- The Michael Bolton version is good as well.
- "A love so beautiful we let it slip away". This is one of those songs that you learn to love after watching a movie/show.
09 August 2014
- Price action yesterday (Obama Iraqi air strikes announcement) revealing [Op 97-99, Hi 98-06.5, Lo 97-95, Cl 97-95.5 = strong reversal] the area around 98-06 as strong resistance.
- Trades : Initial short EDZ6 at 97-95, added on at 98-04 and 97-98. Also short TYU4 at 125-22.
- At this stage, having been disappointed again and again on the bond bear trade, am not looking for much on this. A return to the lows of the daily chart trading range around 97-80 would be immensely satisfying already.
- Trade back > 98-06 would be :( Not expecting this though.
06 August 2014
- Took my eye off the ball, missed the initial break of 1.3515 in mid July while I was away. Really should have had a sell break GTC order in place. Unfortunately not.
- Weekly chart : Trend change apparent. Want to be selling rallies (until 1.3515 is taken out again). Subsequent to initial break, had order in place at 1.3450 which was not filled.
- Awaiting another short entry opportunity. Market almost always give you a 2nd chance. (The first pullback to 1.3444 wasn't it). Patience is key.