08 March 2014
- Price action of last 2 days looks bullish, above 1.3832 chartpoint.
- Perhaps there is a trade here somewhere. Just not sure whether to go with the apparent bullish action or to fade it. This could be near to top of trading range, or start of new higher range.
- Might start with buying as near to 1.3832 as possible and stop reverse on close below.
- Monthly : Bullish Periscope breakout + SHS Bottom (at 1.0656).
- Weekly : Strong uptrend.
- Daily : Looks like price action since Feb = possible triangle consolidation of strong gains following the initial break of 1.0656 in Jan14. Upside boundary of triangle is now at 1.1177. Buy break. Keep position size under strict control within triangle.
- Trade : Late to the long trade thus entry point not optimal, but did manage to sell some near the recent high of 1.1194 so latest pull-back to 1.0953 did not cause too much actual P&L pain. Post US (strong) and Canadian (weak) last night, position looks healthy again.
- Updated charts with annotations.
- Monthly : Developing SHS Top theme. Bearish stance appropriate though still choppy.
- Weekly : Bear flag sell signal confirmed by this week's close.
- Daily : 2 SHS tops evident with strong downside break last night.
- Trade : Squared HGK4 at +309.50 after 2 profitable rounds. Was short at -322, targetting 298 in a period of weeks, but given that 50% of objective was achieved in a matter of hours, felt it appropriate to lock in gains first and await short re-entry.
07 March 2014
- Double top on weekly chart looks like it will break down today. HGK4 now trading at 317.20, below the 318.80 neckline. Already have a large short so unwilling to increase ahead of NFP later. But seems like a weak number anticipated by markets so carrying a big short Copper trade into the event is not so risky [strong NFP = tighter Fed = lower copper].
- Better still if we get a close below 315 tonight/this week.
- DT objective around 298.
- Will decide whether to add on after the numbers.
05 March 2014
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- Some reviews here from Goodreads.
27 February 2014
25 February 2014
24 February 2014
23 February 2014
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21 February 2014
- Apologies to jeffwarbus and anyone else reading blog who had not been given a true picture of my long USD/CAD trade due to laziness on my part.
- As per original post for USD/CAD trade, was stopped out at 1.0960 but did not record that here.
- Subsequently re-entered long trade at same rate (1.0960). Why?
- Because of high conviction level in my favorite trading pattern = periscope-like pattern breakout of a long consolidation band. So I was prepared to give trade another go, and did.
20 February 2014
- Monthly : Big bottom, periscope breakout price action at 1.0656 last month.
- Weekly : Uptrend intact. Setback of past 3 weeks merely a retracement of recent strong gains.
- Daily : Huge daily reversal candle yesterday, signalling uptrend resumption.
- Trades : Long 1.1033, 1.0960 and 1.1050. Next key chartpoint = new move high at 1.1222. Add on break.
18 February 2014
- Missed buying this on the first break of 1.6666 due to Copper and USD/CAD positions under water.
- Trade : Jan 2014 UK inflation data below BOE target = cable weakness. Taken the opportunity to establish fresh long position at 1.6666.
- Monthly : Upside triangle breakout of large consolidation zone (although not in the conventional continuation sense). Next significant chartpoints are 1.6746 and 1.7042. Increase long on break of 1.6746 (which would be 2nd time breaking).
- Weekly : Uptrend intact.
- Daily : As per weekly. Uptrend.
11 February 2014
- The big break of 1.0656 happened while I was taking my enforced break last quarter. 5 big figure trade missed.
- Read this current pullback from 1.1222 as a bull flag on the charts for all time frames.
- Initiated long position at 1.1033. Stop below recent spike low at 1.0966.
- Monthly SHS bottom pointing to upside objective around 1.1907.
07 February 2014
- Out of long trade now. In the end, holding period turned out to be intra-day only before gratification so did not have to put up with too much discomfort for going counter-trend.
- Reinstated short position in HGK4 at 324.3.
- Full expectation of making a fresh low below 317.75.
- Not done with this yet. Will add on higher up.
- Risk for NFP : Weak number = higher HG (delayed tapering) but not sustainable if growth is weak. Risk asymmetrical then.
06 February 2014
- Reversed short and gone long May Copper at 319.30
- Meant to be a quick trade. Still want to be short for the bigger picture. But it has been an easy 1-way ride down from around 335 thus far and reckon we can bounce towards to SHS neckline to ease oversold conditions. 325 looks attainable without too much difficulty.
- GTC sell orders in, of course.