10 February 2015

Chart Comparison : WTI vs Copper











Appears early days yet for Copper.

Copper : Updated Charts

Monthly chart is key. Interpretation self explanatory. If price action unfolds as technical pattern indicates (=meltdown), be prepared for lots of trouble ahead (eg China woes, economic slowdown, events leading to flight to quality (USD/USTs), etc). Technical downside objective is 125/115, massive potential move. Presently the calm before the storm.

07 February 2015

03 February 2015

Trades Backlog

Back in Singapore today. Trades done last 2 weeks while away :=

  • 23Jan15 : Sold GBP/USD @ -1.5029
  • 23Jan15 : Sold ESH5 @ -2055
  • 26Jan15 : Bot ESH5 @ +2036
  • 26Jan15 : Sold HGH5 @ -244
  • 27Jan15 : Sold GBP/USD @ -1.5158
Outstanding open positions now = 1. Short HGH5 @ -249.50 and 2. Short GBP/USD @ -1.5156

Late start to trading in Jan, after the big moves had been made. Marginal up for the month.

Internet access in China now reached hair tearing vomit inducing nose bleed levels of inconvenience. VPNs now works very intermittently, perhaps 30% of the time. Arrrrrggghhhh !!!!

16 January 2015

More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby

Re-reading this now. Seems like even better than I remembered.

Goodreads description.

Read first 2 chapters on Google Books (but the later chapters are much more interesting).

UST 10 Year Note : Bear Squeeze

  • Short USTs is one of the most over-crowded trade for some time already. Incredible, but not surprising therefore, that we have taken out the 15Oct14 spike top (Ebola fears, good inflation and weak data) and holding above that level comfortably.
  • [Markets in turmoil due to SNB peg removal shocker, buy USD, buy USTs, buy Gold, buy JPY]
  • Having to overcome a huge mental block to buy here; but certainly am saving myself a lot of heartache by not even thinking of any kind of short attempt.
  • Looks like front TY contract can test 135-1/2. [Monthly periscope breakout]
  • [The other over-crowded trade being long USD but that is more grounded on relative fundamentals than the long bond trade].

15 January 2015

S&P500 : Watch 1982

  • Million dollar question : Oil + Copper(Dr) down, US yields down = foretelling economic slowdown? Are stocks behind the curve and thus over-valued?
  • Monthly : Still uptrend, no sign of turning yet.
  • Weekly : 2nd hiccup of the strong uptrend in the making.
  • Daily : Possible SHS top being formed. Neckline at 1982. Sell stop-in below. Attempting to sell too early will only lead to endless frustration.
  • [This potential top in equities makes me wary to going short ED and TY tempting though it might be at these lofty levels]

14 January 2015

GBP/USD : Sell Signal below 1.5243

  • Monthly : Broken wedge support below 1.5243. Forget how far down it's come, this is a fresh trade signal for a possible new phase in the sell-off. 
  • Below here, 1.4813 is another very significant chart point.
  • Pyramid in. Initial short established at 1.5188.
  • Breaks like this should get to work quickly (eg EUR/USD break of 1.3515 in Aug14 or the recent Copper break at 2.9035), so the stop loss on this trade is clear.

13 January 2015

Copper : Meltdown

  • Enforced leave of absence for past few months to clear the decks and start all over again.
  • Shorting Copper looks likely to be first trade upon restart.
  • Monthly chart appears to be in meltdown mode below 290. Nothing on board as yet so I will have to try to catch any uptick to get in.
  • [ Hard to get into the long USD trade at this stage ]

06 December 2014

2014 : Abysmal

  • Net result for 2014 - down by pocket change magnitude. Trading was very conservative and sporadic due to various non-trading personal commitment. Operated under very difficult conditions as well in terms of capital (in)adequacy = risk appetite severely curtailed.
  • Chart on RHS is perfect summary of my year. My view = rising US rates. Chose to express in ED futures given experience of my previous life. Unable to spread risk (eg diversify some in FX) as per my normal practice due to inadequate capital. Turned out FX trended strongly (no position) whilst I got whipped to death in Rates (foolishly actively involved).
  • Performance summary in one word. Abysmal. This really should have been a huge year for me given the trending nature of a few of my key traded markets. Truly disappointed with myself. Lost soul.

17 November 2014

16 October 2014

EDZ6 : Great Escape

  • Explosive price action last night. [Op 98-25 Hi 98-67 Lo 98-21.5 Cl 98-43 (reckon at least 5-sigma event)] explained by Ebola fears, low US inflation data + weak economic data.
  • Had been trying for past few months to short EDZ6. Latest attempts -98-14 stopped +98-15.5 and -98-22 stopped +98-26. Expected 98-20.5 to be top of trading range but obviously dead wrong. With rates already so low, going long was never in my thoughts. Thus, huge stroke of luck not to have been caught short in last night's crazy price action. [Lesson : Always place stops with the system!].
  • No clue what to do now. Perhaps major bear capitulation is done. Going to stay out for a while, maybe till next year.

19 September 2014

18 September 2014

FOMC Dots Charts

Jun 18 FOMC (1,12,3)
Sep 17 FOMC (1,14,2)

EDZ6 : Situation Update

  • Sacrificed much of last night's CL football to listen to Yellen's press conference. Bottom line : Timeline to rate hikes non-mechanical, data dependent. Which begs the question - why bother to leave the "considerable time" in? When markets were fragile, it made sense to provide comfort and reassurance but those days are since long over. After the usual initial knee jerk (eg EDZ6 97-91.5 high, TYZ4 124-20 high on seeing the "considerable time" left in the FOMC statement), rates markets collectively voted "hawkish" as indicated by the weak end of day closes.
  • Weekly and daily charts now firmly in bearish mode (barring a strong reversal into the weekend). Might see some support at previous significant low at 97-73, but my expectation is that this will give way and lead to a test of 97-50 on the next NFP release (Exp. reversion to >+200k).
  • Mighty glad not to have been shaken out of existing positions (-EDZ6, -TYZ4 and +USD/-CAD) last night. Purely due to strict discipline in NOT increasing positions earlier in the week. Must stick to that.