30 July 2015

Piano Man


Kevin Spacey = genius. Watch also his celebrity impersonations here (does a mean Michael Caine and Bill Clinton!) and here.

24 July 2015

Red Notice by Bill Browder

  • Top top read. True story about Hermitage Capital/Russia/Putin, corruption and human rights violation. 
  • [John McCain = good. John Kerry = bad]
  • Goodreads link here. Highly recommended.
  • Related videos here. (or start watching Russian Untouchables here).

20 July 2015

EDZ6 : Added to Short @ 98.615

  • Into 2nd round of short EDZ6 trades.
  • Daily chart : Minor uptrend line broken. Sold the break of Friday's low of 98.62. Stop on first entry at 98.66 lowered.
  • Weekly chart : Should see support in the low 50s. Plan is to exit shorts there and re-assess. Break of the weekly uptrend line would be very significant then.
  • My baseline scenario : Sep rate hike. Vigilance and diligence in shorting called for or else too easy to miss big move. Expect that in retrospect, we will look back on China meltdown and Greece as heaven sent shorting opportunities.

19 July 2015

Gold : Break

  • Friday night's weekly close at 1128.70, is a first break of the significant 1131.50 previous low.
  • From here, expect a test of 1000 to come, but I am inclined to try buying into the decline for investment account. GTC bid for GLD ETF in place for 1.5 years already now looks like will be filled soon after a long wait.

16 July 2015

USD/CAD : Major Happening

  • 2nd BOC rate cut last night to 0.50% pushed USD/CA above Mar2015 high at 1.2834. Currently trading at 1.2932.
  • Mar2009 post-subprime crisis high at 1.3063 within sight. Do not expect an easy runaway break though.
  • Strong trending USD/CAD often a good indicator of presence of a dominant underlying market theme (eg CAD weakness in face of declining Oil). Chart telling us something major is going on (divergent monetary policies) or about to happen.

13 July 2015

EDZ6 : Chart Update

  • Since 98.715 short initiated, high traded has been 98.79 during the worst (?) of the recent China stock meltdown/ Grexit woes.
  • Should see some support at current levels 98.61 (daily chart).
  • Will only pyramid sell on the break of 98.50 (weekly support line).

Gold : Key US$1131.50 In Sight

  • Spot gold trading at 1156. Watch Nov 2014 low at 1131.50. Potential for a quick drop below US$1000 if we break.
  • A US Fed rate hike might just do the trick.

06 July 2015

Make My Day

The sweetest sound in the whole wide world. [More]

3 month EuroDollar Futures : Short GEZ6 @ 98.715

  • First trade in ages. Greek 'No" vote caused spike to 98.75 high. GTC sell order filled.
  • GTC stop loss in place.
  • Note changes in charts. From new SaxoTrader Go. Love it. These guys are constantly upgrading their products. Brilliant. (unlike MF Global system which could not even handle GTC orders. No surprise they are gone).

22 May 2015

Dead Wake by Erik Larson

  • Loved this. [Goodreads link]
  • "THAT FIRST TURMOIL, that first bubble of foam, was the expulsion of compressed air from the submarine’s launching tube as the torpedo exited. The torpedo itself was 20 feet long and 20 inches in diameter; its nose, shaped like the top of a corn silo, contained 350 pounds of TNT and an explosive called Hexanite. Though German commanders typically set the depth at 15 feet, this one traveled at 10 feet. It moved at about 35 knots, or 40 miles an hour, powered by compressed air stored in a tank toward its nose, just behind the compartment that contained the explosives. The air rushed against the pistons in its engine, geared to spin two propellers, one clockwise, the other counterclockwise, to keep the torpedo from rolling and veering. The air was then exhausted into the sea, where it bubbled to the surface. These bubbles needed a few seconds to rise, which meant the torpedo itself was always well ahead of the track that appeared above.
    As the torpedo advanced, the water rushing past its nose turned a small propeller, which unscrewed a safety device that prevented detonation during storage. This propeller slipped from the nose and fell to the sea bottom, thereby exposing a triggering mechanism that upon impact with a ship’s hull would fire a small charge into the larger body of explosives. A gyroscope kept the torpedo on course, adjusting for vertical and horizontal deflection.
    The track lingered on the surface like a long pale scar. In maritime vernacular, this trail of fading disturbance, whether from ship or torpedo, was called a “dead wake.”"

21 May 2015

Barry Gibb : How Can You Mend a Broken Heart

For the impatient, song starts at 3:29

22 April 2015

USD/CAD : Trend Reversal?

  • Technical outlook changed. Buying on dips is no longer appropriate.
  • Weekly and daily chart reversed course, now looking bearish.
  • Is a sell on a pullback towards 1.2350 neckline on the daily chart.
  • CAD highly correlated to crude oil. Reversal partly triggered by recent rally in crude and chart suggests more upside to crude (now $56).

18 April 2015

17 April 2015

GBP/USD : WTF ?

  • Stopped out short cable. Bearish technical picture completely destroyed by strong price action. WTF?
  • Monthly smashed through the strong ceiling at 1.4813.
  • Weekly candle looks like going to be a key reversal tonight.
  • Daily : Could not have imagined that this series of up-candles possible beforehand.
  • Having given up shorts, would not be surprised if this now turns around and trades back down towards 1.4750.

15 April 2015

Manchester Derby : A Masterclass in Football Analysis


I really like this.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Analysis with Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher
Manchester United vs Manchester City Analysis with Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher | Super Highlights------------------------------------------------Join Super Highlights for the latest Goals and Highlights
Posted by Super Highlights on Monday, April 13, 2015

14 April 2015

The Alchemists by Neil Irwin

Not particularly recommended reading, but I find this a useful review of recent financial markets history and events.

Quote (from chapter on the King's Speech)

Over the years, the governor has sometimes posed a question to his audience at the start of his annual Mansion House speech, offering his answer at the end. In 2010, he inverted the practice. The answer, he announced to the financiers, was “23.” He would tell them the question only at the conclusion of his speech: 
To what question is 23 the answer? Several plausible answers come to mind. First, 23 is the number of players in England’s World Cup squad in South Africa. Second, it is of course 23 years since England last won the Ashes “down under.” But neither of these are the right answer which is that 23 years is the age difference between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England. In case there is any doubt, George is the younger. This age difference is highly desirable because the appropriate incentives are to allocate the responsibility of determining monetary policy to the older generation, which has a real interest in preserving the value of money, and the responsibility for fiscal policy to the younger generation, on whom falls the burden of excessive debt. . . . Given those incentives, Chancellor, I look forward to a harmonious coordination of monetary and fiscal policy

Unquote