24 March 2015

Change in Risk Management

  • Last post before 2 week absence again.
  • Change in risk management and trading approach here. Rather than running decent sized positions and run higher risk of getting stopped out due to capital inadequacy, am these days trading in much smaller sizes and giving trades plenty more leeway of success. Rather have better chance of making less but sure money than higher chance of making more but getting stopped out more often ie make less rather than trying to make more but end up negative.
  • Holding on firmly to the stronger USD view, technically and fundamentally, and thus cut back to very small risk and giving myself every chance of not getting squeezed out by flash crashes etc.
  • Chart here to illustrate the firmer USD view is cable. Look at trading ranges on daily chart since FOMC (18Mar), characterized by wide ranges, and abrupt reversals after reversals. Am convinced that after shakeout, bear trend (cable) will resume. Maximize my chance of remaining engaged by reducing risk now and hope to ride out the volatility.

19 March 2015

GBP/USD : FOMC Trading = Madness

  • Cable range yesterday. Low before FOMC 1.4634. High after FOCM 1.5165. 5 big figure range on the day.
  • How to survive with long/short position intact? Impossible. Either very very lucky or very very ill disciplined. Long die. Short also die.
  • Will have to put unfortunate experience of being involved yesterday down to bad luck. Get over the trauma and start again. Shit happens. Stop feeling sorry for yourself and fight back.
  • Nevertheless, big picture view remains the same. Fed will lead the world in rate hikes, bullish USD intact.

17 March 2015

Copper : Patience

  • Technically the best looking short out there, but taking a lot longer than anticipated. Patience counselled.
  • Monthly and Weekly : Self explanatory. Best bear potential.
  • Daily : Looks like consolidative rally to relieve oversold conditions almost over now. A close back below 260.65 would be a good first indication of bear resumption.

14 March 2015

GBP/USD : Major Collapse

  • Cable closed the week at 1.4735.
  • This is below the 2 very significant lows at 1.4951 (daily) and 1.4812 (monthly/weekly).
  • Thus, am looking for a major collapse in cable here, order of magnitude of tens of big figures.
  • As always, vital not to get carried away with too large a position size. 

USD/CAD : Triangle Breakout

  • The triangle breakout on the daily chart has performed from the get go. Upside objective is at (1.2799-1.2351+1.2597) = 1.3045.
  • This coincides nicely with significant previous 2008/2009 highs at 1.3063 (monthly chart).

11 March 2015

GBP/USD : Pyramid Short -1.4949

  • Having survived the earlier squeeze to 1.5552 (by reducing position size on the way up and increasing again on the way down), the short cable trade is now looking very good. Deep in the money.
  • Recent low at 1.4951 has now been breached. 
  • Added to short position at 1.4949.
  • Watching 1.4813 next significant low.

07 March 2015

Chart Updates

USD/CAD









GBP/USD









Copper









EDZ6

06 March 2015

EDZ6 : Short at 98-35

  • Trade put on minutes just pre-NFP (+295k, 5.5%) release looking good, Jun hike back on the cards.
  • Not much to support trade from monthly and weekly charts. Range trading.
  • Daily has a double top, NL at 98-43.5. Intention here is to get on board the rate hike train early, and build on that because once it gets going it will be difficult to catch on.

05 March 2015

USD/CAD : Daily Triangle +1.2411

  • Monthly and weekly : Strong uptrend.
  • Daily : In a triangle consolidation, now towards bottom of triangle.
  • Trade : Opportunistic long here at +1.2411. Stop on close below lower triangle edge.
  • If trade survives downside test, add on upside break of triangle at around 1.2600.

Invincible by Amy Lawrence

  • Much enjoying this now, about Arsenal's unbeaten 2003-2004 season. I just love reading about "dream teams". Throwback to my banking days.
  • "‘Star of Stars’ was the headline in La Gazzetta dello Sport, in recognition of the 1995 World Player of the Year, George Weah. A beautiful, baroque ceremony in Milan was attended by the football world’s glitterati, to acclaim the top three footballers of the time: Jürgen Klinsmann, Paolo Maldini and, in first place, Weah. Hearty applause greeted the Liberian, a player who combined grace, power and imagination so naturally, and then the atmosphere suddenly changed when he said he would prefer the award not to be for him. He wanted to give it to his mentor, and called a French manager who was working in Japan to the stage. Up strolled a slightly embarrassed but deeply moved Arsène Wenger. It was not an exaggeration to suggest a large number of people in the audience were not too sure who this lean, bespectacled figure was. ‘He deserves this more than I do,’ said Weah as he handed over the prize. ‘Thanks Mr Coach for everything.’"

10 February 2015

Chart Comparison : WTI vs Copper











Appears early days yet for Copper.

Copper : Updated Charts

Monthly chart is key. Interpretation self explanatory. If price action unfolds as technical pattern indicates (=meltdown), be prepared for lots of trouble ahead (eg China woes, economic slowdown, events leading to flight to quality (USD/USTs), etc). Technical downside objective is 125/115, massive potential move. Presently the calm before the storm.

07 February 2015

03 February 2015

Trades Backlog

Back in Singapore today. Trades done last 2 weeks while away :=

  • 23Jan15 : Sold GBP/USD @ -1.5029
  • 23Jan15 : Sold ESH5 @ -2055
  • 26Jan15 : Bot ESH5 @ +2036
  • 26Jan15 : Sold HGH5 @ -244
  • 27Jan15 : Sold GBP/USD @ -1.5158
Outstanding open positions now = 1. Short HGH5 @ -249.50 and 2. Short GBP/USD @ -1.5156

Late start to trading in Jan, after the big moves had been made. Marginal up for the month.

Internet access in China now reached hair tearing vomit inducing nose bleed levels of inconvenience. VPNs now works very intermittently, perhaps 30% of the time. Arrrrrggghhhh !!!!

16 January 2015

More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby

Re-reading this now. Seems like even better than I remembered.

Goodreads description.

Read first 2 chapters on Google Books (but the later chapters are much more interesting).

UST 10 Year Note : Bear Squeeze

  • Short USTs is one of the most over-crowded trade for some time already. Incredible, but not surprising therefore, that we have taken out the 15Oct14 spike top (Ebola fears, good inflation and weak data) and holding above that level comfortably.
  • [Markets in turmoil due to SNB peg removal shocker, buy USD, buy USTs, buy Gold, buy JPY]
  • Having to overcome a huge mental block to buy here; but certainly am saving myself a lot of heartache by not even thinking of any kind of short attempt.
  • Looks like front TY contract can test 135-1/2. [Monthly periscope breakout]
  • [The other over-crowded trade being long USD but that is more grounded on relative fundamentals than the long bond trade].