USD/CHF : Struggle

• Crap market. Equally crap trading here. I keep asking myself - could I have caught this Risk Off move from looking at my charts? Unlikely. Short term reversals are not my game. Longer term trends are. But I need follow through to make money.
• Initial short at 0.9070. Added on at 0.8982 as downside momentum appeared to gather strength on chart. Damn! Overall position out of money (due to the pyramiding) again!
• Bernanke no hint of QE3 last night unleashed torrent of Risk Off activity that has pushed USD/CHF to a high of 0.9071 so far.
• Fortunate to have scratched the long Ten year position at 131-06 last night (ZNM2 low 130-11.5 today) so I can focus solely on managing this one. Better not to have to many balls in the air when its not going well.
• Still reading this as daily SHS top and this move, however irritating, is merely a pullback for those with bullets to add on. Nothing done here. The weekly chart is little affected by this current uptick.
• Convinced we'll see 0.8560 in time. Trick is how to stay alive for the move.

Carra : My Autobiography

Probably the best footballing book I have read (and I have read more than a few!). Written in a completely undiplomatic manner, Jamie Carragher tells it exactly as he sees it, without worrying about upsetting the people (managers, players alike) he talks about.

Required reading for anyone who calls himself a Liverpool fan and highly recommended for anyone interested in football. (And all this coming from a lifelong Man U fan). Now if only there were such a book coming out of the Man U dressing room ... probably not while SAF is still in charge.

US10YY : DownTrend

• Long TYM2 position finally seeing possible daylight. [In-rate marked at 131-06. Actual rate a bit lower as original TYH2 was rolled at a profit]. Suffered a ride down to 130-03 last week on this position. (Now 131-10).
• One of the few downside to SaxoTrader is no access to bond yields. Crude chart from Bloomberg website here.
• I am reading current price action as a 4th wave consolidation and expect the 22Sep11 low of 1.696% to be taken out eventually [this goes against what all the gurus eg Jeremy Grantham are saying].

EBooks : the giant disruption

Article from The Guardian.

EUR/CHF : Watch the Floor

• Last week, EUR short squeeze pushed it firmer against almost everything else, and yet the CHF was able to gain from 1.2084 to 1.2050. Price action reveals a lot about sustainablity of CHF strength.
• EUR/USD strength has much to do with recent higher oil prices. ECB single inflation mandate (unequivocal tightening) vs Fed dual mandate (likely easing) = asymmetric monetary policy response expected.
• Watch EUR/CHF weekly chart closely. In the last 7 weeks, price action has come to a virtual standstill below 1.2120. Market clearly wants to test the SNB's resolve to hold the floor at 1.20 but needs a catalyst to provide cover. Perhaps another EU flare up, this time involving one of the other countries now that Greece is temporarily put aside. If the CHF can hold its own during a period of generalized EUR strength, imagine what would happen when the EUR is under severe pressure.
• Am prepared to go with a break below 1.20 here.

Eva Mendes : The Windmills of Your Mind

Not bad at all.

Selvarajan Neelakandan (1961-2005)

Remembering a dear old friend who departed too early (26Feb2005).

RIP, Selva. Have a Tiger, or a few.

Masters of the Universe, 1991

All Good Things ...

• 2-year quest for Screen Music 3 finally over.
• Search over, job done, mission accomplished, success achieved.
• There is a lesson here somewhere relevant to T4L, including, amongst others, patience, persistence, not giving up, explore all possibilities however outrageous, follow all leads however remote, lateral thinking, overcome fear of embarrassment and rejection/failure, etc.
• Know that there are still many kind people in this world who are prepared to lend a hand to complete strangers without expecting anything in return.
• Delirious, beyond fairy tale happy now. All good things come to him who waits.

USD/CHF : Big Top on Daily

• Finally, something appears to be working here. But lesson re-learnt, being very careful with pyramiding so as not to get into trouble again.
• Daily chart is most interesting. Huge SHS top (with a double top making the head). Neckline around 0.9080; top at 0.9600, ie downside objective is at 0.8560.
• Surprise surprise, this coincides almost exactly with the previous 4th on the weekly chart, increasing its importance somewhat.
• Under current circumstances, short USD/CHF is almost the same as being long EUR/USD.

To Noriyasu Takeuchi - A Note of Thanks

竹内永和

• There is truly a dearth of high quality arrangements of pop music published for the classical guitar. Much of what is available out there is dreadful.
• Popular Pieces for Guitar Solo Volumes 1-7 and Screen Music for Guitar Solo Volumes 1-3 by Noriyasu Takeuchi is probably the best collection of contemporary music for guitar in existence. All of his arrangements capture the essence of the originals, within the technical reach of the ordinary guitar hobbyist yet challenging enough to make playing them a lot of fun. Top top quality outstanding work from my guitar hero.
• For non-talented musicians like myself who cannot work out the notes by ear on our own, this series of scores by Mr Takeuchi is truly an amazing gift.
• After an initial few years playing in my younger days, I stopped for more than 25 years due to a lack of interesting material to sustain my interest. Only took up the guitar again in the last 2 years after I came across Mr Takeuchi's scores.
• Mr Takeuchi - if you ever do read this, please know that there are many many guitar enthusiasts (I know for sure from my visits to internet guitar chat-rooms) out there who hope that you will continue to make Popular Pieces Volume 8, 9, 10, etc, etc.
• And thank you for the wonderful arrangements that you have done and published until now. I love all of them; my personal favorites are Daydream Believer and The Last Waltz.
• [In T4L it is important to occupy one's time and attention while waiting for good risk reward setups to present themselves. For me, it's reading + guitar].

USD/CHF : Short @ 0.9070

• This was a good trade that I had managed badly earlier. Originally short at 0.9183 and 0.9255 but got out way way too early in my hurry to get fully Risk Off. 
• Ordinarily I would have sold on first break below 0.9090 today but I froze due to lack of confidence. Watched it make a low of 0.9037, before initiating my short on a pullback, to 0.9070.
• This is a short on basis of bearish patterns on weekly and daily charts. First downside target 0.8560.

Cable : Sickening

• BOE vote 7-2 in favor of more (50 bio) QE. The 2 wanted 75 bio more. Cable short stopped out at 1.5844 last week.
• KNN !
• Can't seem to get anything right of late. Copper stopped out near high of day earlier. 
• Serious diminution of margin funds. Getting scared to trade.

Syncing Google Accounts with iOS5

• Note to self for future reference.
• Am heavy Google services user here. Amongst others, Email, Calendar and Address Book (Contacts) all on Google. Until now, have not been able to get sync with iOS4/5 properly, especially address book. iCloud introduction (yet another email+others) has added to confusion.
• Finally figured out how to sync properly. No more duplication all over the place (Mac, Google, iCloud, e-devices). Everything now works exactly as I expect it to, when I want it to. The important thing is to turn on each service in 1 location only. Here's what I mean :=
• In iOS5, go to Settings / Mail, Contacts, Calendars.
• Add Account / Gmail. Turn On - Mail, Calendars and Notes.
• Add Account / iCloud : Turn On - Bookmarks, Photo Stream, Documents & Data and Find My iPhone only. Keep everything else turned Off.
• Add Account / Microsoft Exchange (for above Gmail account) : Turn On Contracts only. Keep Mail and Calendars Off. Instructions on how to set up Exchange is found here.
• 3 main problems I had before eliminated. Contacts updated anywhere (Gmail, iDevice) is now synced everywhere in seconds (on home wifi). Same for Calendar. No longer have to worry whether Notes made in ios5 is stored in iCloud or Google. Also a copy pops up in Gmail automatically.
• Can easily add more email accounts but be sure to turn on Mail only for each additional account. 
• Reason I don't use iCloud for Contacts, Notes etc is I think you can only work on them on your iDevice, not on your computer. Not the best route if you have a lot of data to key in.
• [Contacts all centralized in 1 place on Gmail cloud. Easy migration to other mobile devices. No need for SIM cards, etc. For peace of mind, can always backup locally via Gmail / Contacts / More / Export. If you're seriously kiasu, keep this file in your Dropbox folder! (=2 cloud + multiple local HDs)].

Copper : Confirmed Weekly Sell

• Front contract Mar12 closed at 371.80 (May12 372.35). A few interesting observations (based on front month continuation chart) :=
• 1. Most recent 4 (strictly speaking should only be 3) candlesticks = evening star = uptrend reversal = sell.
• 2. Uneven double top neckline at 384.75. This week's weak close back below makes the neckline penetration a false buy signal = sell.
• 3. A significant previous top at 375 is reclaimed, so should now go back to previous congestion area between 325 and 375 = sell.
• All 3 support being short. Normally I would pile into this in a big way, but after recent repeated beatings, I need to trade cautiously. Shorting May12 at 375.70 on Thurs night was badly timed. Once filled, we almost didn't look back at all until last night's high of 383.95 was made. I suppose I ought to be thankful for its ability to put in a daily reversal to close on the low side at 372.35 (day low 370.25). Still, cannot help but feel stupid at poor entry.
• Current downside objective is long term TL support at 322.

Copper : Fresh Short HGK2 @ 375.7

• Mar Copper (lead contract) below 375 (significant previous top on weekly and daily) = bearish sign.
• Monthly : Possible gravestone doji (but still long way to month end).
• Weekly : On the way to forming an evening star this week = uptrend reversal confirmation.
• Have gone with momentum and initiated short May Copper at 375.70. This is my most preferred Risk Off proxy.
• Instead of bumping up IMR usage with cross market hedges, I have tonight tidied up my core book by :=
• 1. Traded out of long CHF (hedge against long USD+long Risk Off) for a small loss only, greatly reducing IMR and at same time, increasing exposure to Risk Off.
• 2. Taken profit on 50% of short GBP/USD at 1.5673 earlier; now replaced some of that with this short Copper trade. [Just re-sold at 1.5750. So treat profit take as a day trade].