The Buy Side by Turney Duff

• Written by ex Galleon trader, not just another one of your typical Liar's Poker type book in a hedge fund setting. This is a brutally honest memoir about his rise and spectacular downward spiral thereafter due to cocaine addiction.
• Equal parts about finance industry excesses and his personal weakness. Finished book in one sitting. Well worth it.
• My rating : 4/5

Michael Connelly books

• Somehow this author's books completely passed me by the past 15-20 years.. 
• Marathon hardcore catch up for the past 3 months reading all of the Harry Bosch and Mickey Haller series. Finally up to date now. Can't wait for the next book out in Nov/Dec.
• Find the later books better than his earlier ones. Unlike say, Dan Brown.
• Damn good. Rate most of his books 4 or 5 stars. Only 1 3-star. Highly recommended.

Long USD Unwind : Disaster

• Back in Singapore. Time away was disastrous. Caught being long USD and slow to exit. Given up all profits for the year. 
• What annoys me most is that I was looking for this kind of move in Mar/Apr between 92-96 in the USD/JPY. Didn't happen then and I got sucked into the general Abenomics euphoria. Can only hope that next time a parabolic rise unwinds in whichever market, I catch it right using my bad experience from this time.
• Somehow, when one is making bad decisions, it seems that really bad luck follows. (eg cut all long USD except for small position vs GBP. Why didn't I cut GBP instead of  Gold or Copper?)
• Clear the decks and re-start the year in July.
• I wonder how others are doing this round?

ED Futures : EDZ5 Manifest Pricing Error

• One last post before I am off tomorrow. Hope my sina.com blog works.
• Sold EDZ5 (=GEZ5 same thing) at 98.85 last night ie long yield at 1.15% vs 3 month LIBOR at 0.27%. Z5 settles in 2.5 years' time.
• Chances are high that the Fed will tighten sometime in the next year or 2. If  so, EDZ5 pricing is crazy stupid wrong. Reckon 2% Fed Funds at a minimum is conservative, so EDZ5 should trade nearer to 98.00 and lower. [Pricing 1% FF only now].
• Weekly chart double top has downside objective at around 98.475 but I think we will easily slice through this. Remember, we have a long term trend change in place.
• Must increase risk on short EDZ5.
• Aside : If US rates = trending higher, gold at 1382 is wrong too.

Away 30May-13Jun13

• Have commitment that will require me to make regular trips to Shanghai going forward.
• Will be trading as per normal during my time away from Singapore.
• As most Google services are blocked in China, I will not be able to update this blog + my risk spreadsheets stored in Google Drive.
• In order for some semblance of continuity during my increased frequency and duration of Google downtime, I have set up a bare bones blog on Sina.com. Access via the "When in Shanghai .." link located on the right hand column somewhere near the middle (under LINKS) of this main page. Will try to update the new sub-blog as and when. (Just done an actual blog post there - on shorting EDZ5 = double top breakout. See this also).
• While I am away, Pinboard shared items will still update on Blogger.

US10YT : Turned/Turning

• Thus far, I have expressed my "US is best" view via FX (excellent results) and Gold (+ve, but so so performance). This has been correct as relative economic performance clearly favors the US. But perhaps it's now time to ditch relative strength and focus on US absolute performance. Thus, am mulling diversifying the same view into the Rates markets.
• ZNc1 chart : looks like the battle-ship has almost completed its about turn. Taken a year, with many whipsaws in the process. The carry traders have probably had their time. If so, it's the turn of the trend traders who are not crippled by the inertia of negative carry considerations. Watch for a strong close below the bold blue line on the chart for sell signal.
• Rates are probably the best trending instruments around. Once it starts and you catch it right, the money simply will not stop rolling in.
• Unlike 1994, this time round the market will lead the Fed. Back then, the bond bear was due to Greenspan catching the market by surprise. This time, it will be due to markets punishing the Bernanke Fed's over-staying QE ad nauseum. Thoughts that "the Fed won't do anything yet" are dangerous. Banish them.
• Trade : Initiated tiny short ZNU3 -129-19. GTC sell orders nearby above to add on to a decent risk level. If the orders above do not get filled and we get a weak close, hit the market then. EDZ5 GTC sell stop-in order placed 2 months ago nearing fill as well.

USD/SGD : Breakout

• Had sworn not to do spot/cash FX anymore. Chart posting just an observation only. No intention of breaking promise.
• Weekly : Firstly, break above 1.2500 was significant. Then, last week's close above chart resistance line at 1.2626 is a very bullish breakout. 
• It is almost a given that the long USD/SGD trade will work. Because I do not intend to put on anything in it. Sad, but that's the way it seems to turn out always.

Fisherman's Friend : Arbitrage

7-11 : Off market pricing at $2.90

Cold Storage $1.70

Guardian $1.70

Shu Qi : 一生所爱

Link for readers on iOS.

EUR/USD : Keep Trying

• Weekly : Possible SHS top being formed. No trade yet. Neckline is at 1.2777. Sell stop below.
• Daily : Double (/triple) top neckline at 1.2953 broken. First attempt to short at 1.2919 stopped out at 1.2966 just after Bernanke written testimony released (subsequent reversal on "taper" suggestion).
• Trade : Try again on the daily DT. Just sold at 1.2936. Very small position, give it a wide berth this time.
• [Usual monthly chart not included here, system not updating. In any case, not interesting. Largely sideways picture.]

Gold : Daily Bear Flag

• Monthly and Weekly : Unquestionably bearish patterns.
• Daily : Price action of the past few days = bear flag. More downside to come. Expect a revisit of 1321 at a minimum. Bear flag target = $1250. (weekly objective = 1270).
• Trades : Started current series of shorts at -1436. Mindful of restricting exposure to <25% (or thereabouts).

USDX : Chart Update

• Monthly : 2nd attempt to hold above resistance line, looks like will be successful after a false break in March and re-entry in April. Bullish to 88.80.
• Weekly : Above previous high of 84.25 now. Some fierce follow through would be nice. Failure to hold above will likely lead to a squeeze on bulls.
• Trade : For now, have to assume it's bullish. Next release of US NFP probably will make or break this assumption. The potential SHS top in EUR/USD has a large say in how this will turn out (same trade, really).

Love 2012

Had another link to this Taiwanese movie here before, but link killed. Just seen this link on YouTube, so re-posting as this is my favorite movie of recent years, and not only just because it's Shu Qi, whom I absolutely adore. Many funny and heart-warming moments in movie. [Link to play in iOS here].

Inferno by Dan Brown

• Same old same old treasure hunt formula, to the point of being tiresome and dreary. Reads like a travel guide but without the nice colorful pictures.
• This will probably be my last Dan Brown book.
• My rating : 2/5.
• [Michael Connelly - now that's a different story altogether. Only discovered him recently. Very clever. 20+ years of books released to catch up on. 12 books later and I am still hooked.]

GBP/USD : Exciting Times Again

• Monthly : Big triangle breakout at 1.5610 from Feb13 still valid. Subsequent rally from low of 1.4830 all the way up to high of 1.5605 must surely be viewed as the requisite pullback towards the breakline. No damage to the triangle call. The rally seems now to have exhausted itself and ready to attempt the triangle prediction. Recall - downside objective at 1.2380.
• Weekly : The long sideways rectangular band between 1.6308 and 1.5230 was broken below around 18Feb13. Having caught the downleg from 1.56 in size X, my fatal mistake was to increase risk to multiples of X on the pullback towards 1.5230. The penetration back above 1.5230 killed me and wiped out a large part of my YTD profits. This week, we closed at 1.5168, back below the lower rectangle band = sell signal. On symmetry, rectangle downside target 1.4150.
• Daily : Bear flag. Downside break made. Close at 1.5168 is a new low on this leg = sell.
• Trade : Doubled the short cable position last night towards the NY close. Initial short at -1.5244. Addition -1.5168. After pyramiding, risk is still relatively small at only 9%, so plenty of room to increase. Reminding myself not to get carried away and restrict to <25%. Avoid concentration risk although realistically, have already failed there with entire book (62%) one way being derivatives of long USD. Extra caution warranted. I have limit orders to take some profits in Gold below though; if filled, should be of great help towards getting risk under control.
• P&L situation looking good again.

Copper : Short HGN3 at 332.40

• Closed out remnant of long time short position at 325.70 2 days ago.
• Monthly : SHS top broken its NL at around 331. This current upleg is a pullback to get onto the SHS trade.
• Weekly : Triangle downside price action in play = short.
• Trade :  Re-sold July Copper at 332.40.