Using Simple Charts to Identify and Profit from Long Term Trends.
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05 August 2009
Bunds/UST 10 yr Spread : +32
Last +32, widest +ve spread since Aug07
Broke +29 chart point yesterday on strong housing data, pre-empting expected upside break on improving NFP
Still need weekly close above +29 to confirm fresh buy signal. NFP probably deciding factor. Refunding next week should strengthen up move.
Longer term implications for equities and USD/fx. Very important to watch this for possible turning points (much higher yields have potential to reverse current moves)
Awaiting price action after NFP release (weekly close too) for desirability of adding on to trade
Duration neutral ratio is 1 TYU9 vs 0.52 RXU9 (Bloomberg PDH2 - thanks Andrew!)
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