29 May 2013

ED Futures : EDZ5 Manifest Pricing Error

  • One last post before I am off tomorrow. Hope my sina.com blog works.
  • Sold EDZ5 (=GEZ5 same thing) at 98.85 last night ie long yield at 1.15% vs 3 month LIBOR at 0.27%. Z5 settles in 2.5 years' time.
  • Chances are high that the Fed will tighten sometime in the next year or 2. If  so, EDZ5 pricing is crazy stupid wrong. Reckon 2% Fed Funds at a minimum is conservative, so EDZ5 should trade nearer to 98.00 and lower. [Pricing 1% FF only now].
  • Weekly chart double top has downside objective at around 98.475 but I think we will easily slice through this. Remember, we have a long term trend change in place.
  • Must increase risk on short EDZ5.
  • Aside : If US rates = trending higher, gold at 1382 is wrong too.


Taichiseal said...

Original position 100% @ -98.85

Added 30% at -98.78

All in now 130% at -98.833

Taichiseal said...

typo .. -98.79 ...

Taichiseal said...

Sold another 30% at -98.81 .. total now 160% short at 98.83 average price.