02 April 2013

GBP/USD : Refine Trade Plan

  • Huge recovery in P&L today following disappointing UK Mfg PMI. Unchanged futures positions but risk limits used now dropped from over 85% to around 59% now purely on higher equity. This allows me plenty of flexibility to get active again.
  • Will trust my own judgment on GBP/USD. Calling the 2 tests of 1.5260 a potential double top on the daily chart. NL is at 1.5090; if this breaks I am going to stick my neck out and pyramid onto the existing elephant position some more (instead of being thankful for the chance to get out at only a small loss on the overall trade). DT objective would be around 1.4920.
  • Will then run the entire elephant whale trade on the daily double top risk parameters ie if it fails at the 1.5090 NL, I will get out of the whole position and give up on the whole adventure.
  • But first, the NL has to break. We wait.
  • Aside : Just sold USD/JPY at -93.30, short term trade but consistent with overall Risk Off. The more I stare at the weekly chart, the more convinced I am we will see it near 90.00. [Cable and Copper risk 59%, USD/JPY 6%, so overall now 65% as indicated on the risk table on the right column].


Taichiseal said...

Day trade : Paid +1.5101
Stop : NL break as per post.

Taichiseal said...

Stopped out day trade -1.5090.

Also core short increased via stop-in at -1.5090 triggered.