- Disagreement within FOMC. Evans Rule (2.5% inflation, 6.5% unemployment rate) announced after the Dec12 FOMC. Yet minutes of same meeting now show several members want end to QE before or at end of 2013.
- Believe that "stated" action will take precedence ie rise in rates last night is a knee jerk reaction that will reverse in due course. Absurd to think that the FOMC, after debate, makes a policy announcement, and then completely disregards it almost immediately. Remember - current UR is still at 7.7%.
- In any case, got lucky here with open positions. -Copper and +ZN (both Risk Off) supposed to run against +USD/JPY (Risk On). Last night's development turned interest rates into the market driver; so my -Copper gains covered the losses of the +ZN and the +USD/JPY moved deeper into the money (7 big figures now).
- Buy more bonds.
- Addendum 05Jan13 4:10 am : S&P trading at 1465. This is not a market that is worried about Fed tightening.
04 January 2013
FOMC Minutes : Some Thoughts
Labels:
General View,
Positions
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
From UBS
http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-on-fomc-minutes-end-of-qe-2013-1
Post a Comment