- Trade 1 : Long @ 1.3011 and 1.3023, near to the NL.
- Trade 2 : Added @ 1.3050 on basis of strength shown towards NY close.
- In sticking with trading rule #10 and not wanting to lose money once a position goes reasonably far into the money, earlier stop was moved up to 1.3021. This was duly taken out by the market yesterday. Low of move 1.3018.
- Now trading @ 1.3110.
- Whilst the loss was negligible, the real pain is in missing out on the predicted upmove. Stopped out by noise (type 1 error).
- Lesson : Don't overtrade. Trade 2 was one trade too many. Without it, I would still be in the trade.
- This is a good example of the trade-offs between type 1 and type 2 errors in moving from "Fuzzy Exits" to "Pre-determine Stop Losses".
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