20 January 2013

EUR/CHF : 3-mth ED Preview ?

  • Recent sudden sharp rally in EUR/CHF is a big miss here.
  • Good eg of a "nothing, nothing, nothing .. sudden explosion" price action due to a sea change in expectations. Usually the market would have spent the longest time consolidating unchanged conditions and lulled into a state of lazy complacency; hence the sudden burst of volatility with everyone caught one way and realizing that underlying assumptions have changed.
  • For me, as a chart trader, the key signal is the initial large candle spiking outside the consolidation zone = the periscope.
  • A market that has been trading in a similar lull is the 3 month EuroDollar interest rate futures. Must monitor it for the (inverse) periscope. Big trade when we get it.

No comments: