29 December 2012

Copper : Pre-Trade Phase Nearing End

Copper Weekly
  • Copper usually behaves like a high-beta Shanghai Composite. So it is odd that whilst the latter has bounced from 1949 to 2233 (+14.5%) since early Dec12, Copper has actually traded lower in the same period. [On 04Dec12, when SSEC made low of 1949, Copper closed that day at 363 vs 358 yesterday]. Could this be indicative that Copper is more worried about a general slowdown everywhere else?
  • In any case, we care only about price and pattern here. Reason is irrelevant; and P&P is about to get interesting. [See inset chart and annotations]. 
  • Immediate : We are slowly but surely nearing to a triangle breakout. [Warning : Expect a few more candles later = a few more weeks' waiting].
  •  In the bigger picture : there is a SHS top in the making.
  • Trade : Waiting to sell strength against >378 stop (speculative) , and/or sell weakness on <344 breakout (preferred).


Taichiseal said...

Initiated short HGH3 @ 373 (on fiscal cliff risk on rally).

Taichiseal said...


Prefer to wait for triangle to break on downside first.

Taichiseal said...

Low conviction short within triangle.