02 October 2012

GBP/USD : Short @ 1.6166

  • Possible trade setup here, although not exactly optimal at current levels around 1.6140.
  • Monthly : Still within long tracked 4-year big triangle formation [on last cable trade here in July, was caught short by false downside break of triangle at 1.5400]. For this month, upper edge of triangle is at 1.6490. But there is no rule that price must back up all the way and turn back down to form a third upper corner of the triangle. 
  • The actual classical monthly triangle trade is to sell a confirmed downside break of 1.5390. We are nowhere near this yet. The much less optimal route is to try pick a top near the upper region of the triangle. The early entry at high levels will be a big psychological advantage later if works. 
  • Weekly : 1.6300 is looking to be a possible double top, so good place to try the early short trade against a stop close above.
  • Daily : Upmove looks over-extended.
  • Trade : Short a tiny amount at 1.6166, and leaving myself ample room to increase risk towards 1.6250.

7 comments:

Taichiseal said...

Game plan change. Added to short position at 1.6103. Stop moved down. At worst breakeven trade now.

Taichiseal said...

Stopped out 1.6124 with tiny profit.

Taichiseal said...

Re-sold at 1.6179

Taichiseal said...

-1.6193 after inability to hold above 1.6200 post NFP.

Taichiseal said...

Taken profit on 50% @ 1.6074. Stop on balance moved down.

Taichiseal said...

Updates :

-1.6063

+1.6022

Net : -2 units

Taichiseal said...

Stopped out all at 1.6068.

Trade complete. Start again with brand new trade next if deemed desirable.