07 February 2011

UST-Bunds Spread : Another Perspective

  • Had been looking for a SHS top on the weekly chart for the longest time. Traded in and out of this, legging here legging there with some success even though the SHS never came to fruition. Still possible but looks increasingly unlikely by the day now.
  • Monthly chart price action of the last 7 months looks like a SHS bottom instead. 
  • Conflicting reading on different timeframes. I would now prefer to try and buy this on the dip to +37 (vs current +41). SHS bottom objective in the + mid-60s. [I can easily envisage US10YY at 4.00% and EU10YY at 3.35% eg some kind of inflation driven lower USD/FX but Fed-does-not-care scenario].

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