25 February 2011

+S&P500 vs -Simsci

  • Compare the 2 monthly charts.
  • S&P500 : Uptrend intact in spite of Mid East/Africa sell-off. Long surpassed 62% Fibonacci of the entire downmove of the subprime crisis. Assume uptrend until proven wrong. To call a reversal, we need 1 or 2 more bearish candles to complete a typical 3-candle formation (evening star). Until then, still buy dips.
  • Simsci : The 3 candles following Nov10's dojj together confirm reversal of uptrend has taken place. Downtrend may or may not have started, but uptrend surely looks to be over.
  • Therefore, want to run long S&P500 vs short Simsci. Will do this by contract value. [At current 1308 and 356, ratio is appx 0.86 ES : 1 SSG, or multiples of 5ES to 6 SSG]. Think the ES IMR overstates the risk.
  • Will leg into this slowly. Currently started with the S&P leg, which I was a bit early going into (long ESH1 1312). Simsci looks a good short from around 358-362 (wonder if upcoming elections has any bearing on this chart).


Taichiseal said...

1st order scaling up selling filled. Sold SSGH1 @ 358.0

Taichiseal said...